The glass industry hovering at the bottom for more than 15 months finally shows recovery.
the glass industry hovering at the bottom for more than 15 months is no stranger to our daily life, and finally shows signs of recovery in the near future
according to the latest monitoring data, the average glass price (4mm) rose by 0.8 yuan/heavy container to 66.1 yuan/heavy container in mid May, a range of 1.2%; In the same period, the industrial inventory fell to 27.57 million heavy containers, a month on month decrease of 270000 heavy containers, about 1%. During this period, regional seminars were held all over the country, and the wave of price increase spread from south to north
insiders of securities companies contacted said that "the bottom of the overall profit of the glass industry is basically established". However, the end of the bitter days does not mean that the glass industry will live a "happy life"
the bottom is slightly warm
since the beginning of 2011, glass prices have turned downward and have been hovering at the bottom. After nearly five quarters of decline, the whole industry generally shouted "loss". The first quarterly report of glass listed companies showed that yaopi glass (600819) and Luoyang Glass (600876) lost 18.61 million yuan and 36.05 million yuan respectively. Although CSG a (000012) and Jinjing Technology (600586) made 121.23 million yuan and 7.4998 million yuan in the quarter, they fell sharply by 70.8% and 89.6% year-on-year
however, since the bottom of the glass price in November 2011, the glass price has fallen steadily in the past two quarters, and has a tendency to pick up. Recently, the price of glass in China, led by South China, has started a round of general increase, with an average range of 2-3 yuan/heavy box, up to 6 yuan/heavy box. In particular, Hebei, known as the national weather vane, has also started a round of price increase, with a range of 1-2 yuan/heavy box
according to the latest monitoring data, in the middle of May, except for the price in Henan Province, the price in other places increased by 0.5-2. If the sealing volume of the oil pump in the tension test is connected with different oil suction chambers within a certain instant 5 yuan/heavy container; The average price of glass in major cities (4mm) was 66.1 yuan/heavy container, up 0.8 yuan/heavy container month on month
gold securities learned that regional seminars and small conferences have been held in various regions recently. Following the regional conferences in East China and central China, the Northeast conference is about to hold a slow and uniform loading of test pieces, and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices is still strong
in addition, for two consecutive months, the production inventory of 269 pieces of float glass in China continued to decline from the high point of 30.16 million heavy containers. In the first ten days of May, the total volume was 28.28 million heavy containers, and in the middle of May, it fell to 27.57 million heavy containers
an insider of CSG a disclosed to golden securities that "the float glass business unit in the second quarter has reversed the overall loss situation in the first quarter." According to the estimate of the price trend of South China glass, the profit of the float glass division of CSG A is about 10million yuan/month
Qibin group (601636) also said, "the operating situation in the second quarter recovered, but due to some accounting adjustments in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, the profit in the second quarter may not be reflected."
the day of glass, the face of real estate
however, the pace of industry recovery is not stable. After all, 70% of flat glass is used in the real estate industry, and real estate investment plays a decisive role in the demand for glass
a dealer told golden securities, "orders have increased since March, mainly for electrical home decoration glass, and the demand for building glass has not recovered significantly." Another manufacturer also disclosed that "at present, the supply and demand of white glass in South China has reached a balance, but the downstream demand is mainly driven by the growth of decoration and electronic market, and the construction demand has not recovered significantly."
zhouhuan, a joint researcher of Huatai, said bluntly, "the main reason for the improvement of the glass market is that a large number of production lines have stopped production or switched production due to losses since the fourth quarter of last year, and the contraction effect of ordinary glass supply has begun to appear. Even though the current demand has not recovered significantly, there are still positive changes in prices and inventories."
according to the introduction, the kiln shutdown rate of the glass industry is currently at a historical high of 26%, and 70 production lines have been shut down. According to golden securities, there are currently 10 float glass lines to be ignited, with a production capacity of 59.15 million heavy boxes; Another 12 lines have been basically completed, with a capacity of 50.24 million heavy containers
since glass installation is mainly in the late stage of real estate construction, the amount of completed area represents the strength of glass demand. According to the data, affected by the large number of new construction projects in the early stage, the completed area of commercial housing in 2012 increased by 30.2% year-on-year. Analysis of a securities trader in Shenzhen, "If the warming trend of real estate sales can continue, the growth rate of the completed area of commercial housing may reach about 20%. Due to the high cost of putting into production after shutdown, it will take more than three months and tens of millions of yuan to repair the kiln. It is expected that the newly built float glass production line to be ignited and the shutdown line will not be put into production in large quantities soon. The growth rate of this year's glass output over last year may be less than 5%, and the supply gap will appear again."
"of course, the real estate regulation policy will not be greatly relaxed, so the glass price is unlikely to rise as much as in 2009." He added
"short fight" rather than "long attack"
the strength of economic recovery in various regions in China varies, which also makes the continuous rise of prices in the glass industry variable
the above-mentioned Guangdong producers introduced to golden securities, "At present, the price increase in South China is the largest, East China is rising slightly, central China is stable, and North China is the worst. Although the price in South China is 100 yuan/ton higher than that in Central China and 300 yuan/ton higher than that in North China, the freight from central China to South China is 200 yuan per ton, and the cost from North China to South China is 300 yuan/ton. Due to the oversupply in Central China and other regions, in order to ensure the continuous capital chain, local glass enterprises are quite willing to enter the South China market even if they lose money." He judged that due to the impact of foreign glass, the price of white glass could hardly have a sharp upward trend
a researcher from China investment securities told golden securities, "From a fundamental point of view, the first quarter of this year will be the low profit point for the next 3-5 years. However, since it is unlikely that the macro economy will recover significantly in the second half of this year and the first half of next year, it is expected that the glass industry will recover moderately. The overall net interest rate of the industry in the third quarter will gradually recover from -5% in January to February this year, and will fluctuate to the end of the year or even the first quarter of next year."
it is noteworthy that Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is preparing for the launch of glass futures, and the market generally believes that "it can be listed as soon as June or the second half of the year." According to the above CIC researcher, "due to the obvious recovery trend of the industry net interest rate and the expectation of the launch of glass futures, there may be trading opportunities in the glass sector in the short term, but the time point for long-term investment has not come."
the chairman of wired
three change technology (002112) was investigated or affected to acquire a large order of Xinlian Electronics (002546). The share price was flat
affected by the news that luxuri, the chairman of three change technology (002112), was filed for investigation by the CSRC, three change technology was temporarily suspended for half a day yesterday. After the afternoon opening, the share price fell sharply, down 8.96% as of yesterday's closing
the company announced in the evening of the 24th that luxuri, the chairman of the company, had received the notice of investigation from the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The China Securities Regulatory Commission decided to investigate him for his suspected violation of securities laws and regulations. However, it does not affect luxuri to perform his duties as chairman of the board
yesterday, golden securities took the lead in calling the three changes technology securities department. The staff told, "at present, the chairman and general manager of the company are on business trips. The investigation does not affect the normal work of the chairman." For the specific matters of the investigation, the staff said that the company also asked the CSRC about the relevant investigation, but the CSRC did not disclose it, and the specific investigation time was unknown. It is worth mentioning that the investigation of the chairman of the three changes technology may have a certain impact on the issue of shares to purchase assets and supporting fund-raising launched by the company in February this year. In April this year, the company announced that it would issue shares to purchase assets and support the related party transaction plan for raising funds. It is proposed to issue about 27919700 shares to seven natural persons, chengjunming, tangliangxing, zhaohenglong, fangyihua, Tai Liqun, Zheng Zhengrong and wangyuying, at the issue price of 7.60 yuan/share, to purchase 100% equity of Yang Dong electric held by the above-mentioned natural persons, with an expected valuation of 212 million yuan. The total amount of the raised funds shall not exceed 25% of the total transaction amount, and the funds will be used to supplement the working capital and improve the integration performance
Yangdong electric achieved a sales revenue of RMB 216million in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 53.14%; The net profit was 24.7633 million yuan. As of december31,2011, the net assets of the company were 63.2696 million yuan. In contrast, the operation of "three changes" technology is facing great pressure. Due to intensified competition, low product prices and high raw material prices, the gross profit margin of "three changes" technology has declined rapidly. According to the financial report, the operating revenue of the company last year increased by 18.27% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 32.09 million yuan, a decrease of 172.73% over the same period last year. "At present, the company hasn't had time to contact the acquirer, and I don't know what the other party's intention is now," the staff of sanbian technology told him It is not known whether the acquisition will go smoothly
on Tuesday, Xinlian Electronics (002546) announced that the company had received the letter of acceptance from the material Department of Jiangsu electric power company and Jiangsu Tianyuan Tendering Co., Ltd. the company would become the bid winner of package 1 and package 10 of the fourth batch of material bidding procurement of Guodian Jiangsu electric power company in 2012, with a total bid winning amount of 51.5438 million yuan, accounting for 11% of the company's audited operating income in 2011. It is understood that this is the second letter of notification of award received by Xinlian electronics this month
however, what surprised investors was that under the favorable conditions of the winning contract, Xinlian electronics closed down for three consecutive days, and the performance of the secondary market was weak, with a decline of 2.67% yesterday
on May 9, Xinlian electronic released the announcement of winning the leading major contracts this year. The winning bid was the bid winner of package 1, package 2 and package 3 of special transformer acquisition terminal purchased by Chongqing Electric Power Company through agreement inventory bidding in 2012. The total winning amount was 51.76 million yuan, accounting for 11.04% of the company's audited operating income in 2011. Only half a month later, Xinlian electronics won the bidding project of Jiangsu electric power company again
it is worth mentioning that, according to the situation in previous years, the first big order of Xinlian electronics should appear in the second half of the year, but this year it was early to may, and it was two consecutive big orders. The company said in the announcement that "the contract will have a positive impact on the company's 2012 performance."
on the one hand, it is positive from the company level, on the other hand, it is "dissatisfied" from investors. On the Investor Forum, it is generally believed that "at present, the company's share price does not reflect the actual value of fundamentals." Gold securities called Xinlian electronics as an investor. The staff of the Securities Department said, "the share price of the secondary market is affected by many factors, and the company is difficult to respond to investors' questions, but it is certain that the company has a lot of space and prospects in its operation."
it was learned from the "can we correctly exit the system gold securities" that since this year, in addition to the above two large orders, there have been some unpublished small orders of millions, involving regions such as Shanghai and Heilongjiang. Hanling, an analyst at GF Securities (000776), believes that "the orderly use of electricity to meet the peak in summer will benefit the promotion of 230m special equipment, while Xinlian electronics is the leading enterprise of 230m special equipment terminal, and has a high winning rate in local bidding, which has triggered investors' excessive expectations on the company's secondary market." the chinese people